Nifty outlook and top trading ideas from Prabhudas Lilladher for today

Stock Market and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, Research Analyst - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Indices continue to surge with selective frontline stocks, with Energy index surging by 7.5% w.o.w especially Reliance gaining over 10%, followed by IT Sector gaining by 3.7%, the Mid-cap sector continues to be a laggard with most of the stocks continuing to make new lows. The market as such is just witnessing index management with high volatility, However, the support for the day would be seen at 10820 while the resistance would be at 11200 levels.

BUY SUN PHARMA
CMP: Rs 559.75
TARGET: Rs 600
STOP LOSS: Rs 540
The stock has been consolidating at around 550 - 570 and has maintained above the 34WMA moving average to indicate a positive bias and potential to rise further in the coming days. With good consistent volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 600 keeping a stop loss of 540.

BUY PEL 
CMP: Rs 2,520
TARGET: Rs 2,600
STOP LOSS: Rs 2,440
The stock has been moving with a positive bias in a gradual trending mode upwards and with the RSI indicator indicating a trend reversal, we anticipate the stock to move up till 2600 levels in the coming days. Also, the stock has maintained above significant 34WMA moving average and with decent volume activity seen, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 2600 keeping a stop loss of 2440.

DCB Bank falls 11% post June quarter results

DCB Bank dipped 11% to Rs 160 on the BSE in intra-day trade after net interest margin (NIM) of the private sector lender declined 33 bps year on year (yoy) at 3.9% in June quarter. NIMs were stood at 4.23% for Q1FY18 and 4.09% for Q4FY18.
“Margins are under pressure especially in mortgage and corporate loan book. We continue to be watchful of NPAs,” said Murali M. Natrajan, Managing Director & CEO, DCB Bank.

Gross non-performing assets (NPA) ratio for Q1FY19 came at 1.86% against 1.74% in the same quarter last fiscal. Net NPA for the quarter were flat quarter on quarter (qoq) and down 20 bps yoy at 0.72%.

The bank’s net profit grew 7.7% at Rs 700 million in Q1FY19 as against Rs 650 million in Q1FY2018. NII has improved 17.1% yoy to Rs 2.73 billion as compared to Rs 2.33 billion reported in the same period of the previous fiscal.

“Slippages inched up to Rs 1.07 billion (2.6% v/s 2.2% in 4Q), led by elevated slippages in Agri and Inclusive Banking (AIB). Healthy recoveries and upgrades at Rs 680 million led to an 8.6% qoq increase in GNPA to Rs 4 billion. However, the bank shored up its calculated PCR to 61.6% (60.2% in 4Q), leading to a 5% qoq rise in NNPA to Rs 1.54 billion. GNPA/NNPA (%) increased 7bp/0bp to 1.86%/0.72%,” Motilal Oswal Securities said in result update.

Hindustan Unilever hits new high ahead of Q1 results

Shares of Hindustan Unilever (HUL) hit a new high of Rs 1,770 per share, up 1.6% on the BSE in intra-day trade so far on Monday, ahead of its results for the June quarter (Q1FY19) later in the day.
Since May 14, 2018, after March quarter (Q4FY18) results, HUL has outperformed the market by surging 17.5% as compared to 2.8% rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. Thus far in the calendar year 2018, the stock of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) company has rallied 29% against 7.3% gain in the benchmark index.

HUL is the largest FMCG Company in India, operating across a host of categories in home care, personal care and foods.

ICICI Securities expect HUL to post 12.9% comparable sales growth in Q1FY19 mainly led by volume growth of 8% as GST rate cut on detergents in November 2017 has led to price cuts by the company during the quarter along with its focus on premiumisation and market share gains.

“Due to higher raw material and advertisement costs, the operating margin is expected to remain flat at 21.7%. We expect net profit to grow 16.5% to Rs 14.95 billion,” the brokerage firm said in Q1FY19 result preview.

Today's picks: From UPL to Sun Pharma, hot stocks to watch today

Nifty
Current: 11,023 (fut: 11,015), Target: NA
Stop-long positions at 10,050. Stop-short positions at 11,080. Big moves could go till 11,125, 10,900. A long 10,900p (53), long 11,100c (53) can be offset by short 10,800p (33), short 11,200c (27). This combined long-short strangle has breakevens at 10,854, 11,146.

Bank Nifty
Current: 27,025 (fut: 26,995)
Target: NA
Stop-long positions at 26,875. Stop-short positions at 27,125. Big moves could go till 27,350, 26,650. Up trend could be halted by profit-booking. Resistance at 27,150-27,200.

UPL
Current price: Rs 582
Target price: Rs 572
Keep a stop at Rs 588 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 575 and Rs 577.
Book profits at Rs 572.

Sun Pharma
Current price: Rs 565
Target price: Rs 575
Keep a stop at Rs 560 and go
long. Add to the position between Rs 572 and Rs 574.
Book profits at Rs 575.

Bharti Airtel
Current price: Rs 362; Target price: Rs 357
Keep a stop at Rs 365 and go short. Add to the position between Rs 358 and Rs 359. Book profits at Rs 357.

Nifty outlook and top trading ideas from Prabhudas Lilladher for today

Stock Market - Nifty outlook and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, Research Analyst - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Nifty crossed the 11000 mark and made the intraday high of 11078 where it faced a resistance and witnessed some profit booking. On the downside now Nifty has got a support near 10950-10960 levels while on the upper end around 11200 would be the new level. Bank Nifty too found the resistance at the previous peak level of 27164 and succumbed to some profit booking. However, the support for the day would be seen at 10950 while the resistance would be at 11080 levels. The result outcome of Infy can be a trigger for the indices to fresh movement on either side.

BUY VOLTAS
CMP: Rs 546.30
TARGET: Rs 595
STOP LOSS: Rs 510
The stock has made a round bottom formation pattern at 510 levels and gradually is picking up gaining strength and has got potential to rise further in the coming days. The stock has almost given a breakout above the significant 50DMA moving average and has made the positive bias. With the RSI on the rise, the stock looks attractive for further upward move and with good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 595 keeping a stop loss of 510.

Top trading ideas by Anand Rathi Research: Buy Dr. Reddy, SBI

Nifty outlook and Top trading ideas by Jay Anand Thakkar ,CMT -Assistant Vice President - Equity Research, Anand Rathi Research:

NIFTY: BUY
TARGET 11,188
STOP LOSS: 10,933

The Index has provided a breakout from the consolidation i.e. from a symmetrical triangular pattern with a buy crossover in its momentum indicators MACD from the zero reference line. The Index is likely to form a new life highs in this rally, hence we recommend buying Nifty for the target of 11188 with a stop loss of 10933.

DR. REDDY: BUY
TARGET: Rs 2,420
STOP LOSS: Rs 2,323
Dr. Reddy has provided a breakout from the downtrend line resistance with a buy crossover in its
momentum indicator MACD on the daily charts. This indicates that the wave 5 up has resumed, hence the probability of an upside is quite high.

SBIN: BUY
TARGET: 275
STOP LOSS: 257
SBIN seems to have completed its retracement of the five wave and now it seems to be starting another five waves rising structure. The momentum has reversed from an oversold territory as well.

MCDOWELL: SELL
TARGET: 575
STOP LOSS: 613
MCDOWELL has broken the symmetrical triangular pattern on the lower side with a sell crossover in its momentum indicators which is a bearish sign in the short term. The stock also seems to have started another five waves on the lower side which indicates that the trend going ahead is bearish.

L&T gains on order win worth Rs 23.88 billion

Larsen & Toubro (L&T) has moved higher by 1.3% at Rs 1,292 on the market after the company said its water & effluent treatment business won orders valued Rs 23.88 billion.
The orders have been secured from the Madhya Pradesh Jal Nigam Maryadit for the execution of Satna, Kundatiya and Mohanpura multi village rural water supply schemes on turnkey basis. The projects are funded by the New Development Bank, L&T said in a press release.

Another EPC order has been received from the Tirunelveli Municipal Corporation for providing Underground Sewerage Scheme (UGSS) to additional areas of Tirunelveli Corporation - Phase II.

The scope of work includes laying 225 Km of sewer pipelines, construction of RCC manholes, pumping stations, lifting stations and providing sewer connections to 55,000 households, it added.

IT, Private Banks, RIL, HUL help Sensex to hit record high

Shares of heavyweight companies from the information technology (IT) sector, private banks along with Reliance Industries (RIL) and Hindustan Unilever (HUL) have helped the S&P BSE Sensex hit a record high of 36,463 on Thursday. The benchmark index surpassed its previous high of 36,2443.98 recorded on January 29, 2018.

Nifty 50 index, which touched high of 11,015.45 in intra-day trade today, is 1.4% away from its all-time high of 111,71.55 recorded in January this year.

Besides Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and Infosys from the IT pack, a rally in Kotak Mahindra Bank, IndusInd Bank and HDFC Bank from private banking space, Asian Paints and Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) are some of the stocks that helped the S&P BSE Sensex record a new high today.

Top trading ideas by Tradebulls Securities: Buy NIIT Tech, sell Idea

Nifty outlook and top trading ideas from Sacchitanand Uttekar, DVP – Technical (Equity), Tradebulls Securities:

Nifty Outlook:
Nifty has trended well post breaking above 10800 & maintained the sequence of higher bottoms well since then. The index formed a ‘Spinning Top’ formation on the daily scale & has been quoting far from its short term averages.

Stock: NIIT TECH
Reco.: Buy
CMP : Rs 1,128
Strong sector performance & the 5 weeks consolidation seems mature now. A sustained move above 1150 would accelerate the momentum as indicated by the trend strength indicator (RSI) which has witnessed a breakout from its corresponding range in yesterday’s session. Trading longs could be initiated with a stop below 1083 & a potential target upto 1246.

Stock: IDEA
Reco.: SELL
CMP : Rs 54
Secular downtrend remains intact as the lower top lower bottom sequence continues on the daily scale as well. IDEA has breached below its critical pivotal around 54 & also trading below its short term averages. Any slippage below 53.80 could drag it further lower towards 50 zone. Short positions should be maintained with a stop above 56.30.

TCS gains 3% as Q1 profit beats Street estimate

Stock Market - Shares of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) rose 3% to Rs 1,928 per share on the BSE in early morning trade after the country’s biggest software services exporter posted a better-than-expected rise of about 23.5% year on year (YoY) and 6.3% quarter on quarter (QoQ) in first-quarter (Q1) net profit, helped by strong growth in its banking, financial services and insurance division (BFSI).
TCS has recorded a consolidated net profit of Rs 73.40 billion in April-June 2018 (Q1FY19) versus a profit of Rs 59.45 billion in the same quarter last year. While the revenues at the reported currency grew 15.8% YoY and 6.8% QoQ to Rs 342.61 billion, in constant currency (CC) terms, it rose by 9.3% year-on-year (YoY) and 4.1% sequentially.


Analysts on an average had expected profit of Rs 69.67 billion on revenue of Rs 341.69 billion for the quarter.

“TCS Q1FY19 CC revenue growth at 4.1% QoQ is a meaningful beat to estimates and is highest in several quarters. Revenue recovery has gathered further momentum with a definite growth revival in BFSI and retail verticals. Slowdown in these two verticals had adversely impacted FY18 growth and with the recovery double digit constant currency revenue growth is almost a certainty,” Antique Stock Broking said in a result review.

FMCG index hits new high; HUL, Godrej Consumer at record levels

Shares of fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies continued at their upward march on Wednesday with the Nifty FMCG index hitting a new high of 29,958 on the National Stock Exchange (NSE), fuelled by expectations of a healthy performance in June quarter, aided by a low base and a healthy underlying demand scenario.

Hindustan Unilever (HUL), Godrej Consumer Products (GCPL), Jubilant FoodWorks and Marico from the Nifty FMCG index hit their respective record highs on the NSE in intra-day trade today. At 11:43 am; Nifty FMCG index was up 0.75% at 29,938, as compared to 0.10% decline in the Nifty 50 index.


Thus far in the current calendar year 2018 (CY18), the FMCG index has rallied 11% against 4% rise in the benchmark index. Jubilant FoodWorks (up 61%), Britannia Industries (35%), GCPL (26%) and HUL (23%) were up more than 20% during this period.

PNB Housing rises 6% as PNB, Carlyle Group plan to offload 51% stake

Shares of PNB Housing Finance were up by 6% at Rs 1,269 per share on Wednesday in intra-day trade, extending their 2% rise in the previous day on the BSE, after the company said that Punjab National Bank (PNB) and the Carlyle Group proposed to sell their stake to the potential acquirers.
“We hereby inform you regarding joint communication received today from Punjab National Bank (PNB) and Quality Investment Holdings (The Carlyle Group) regarding sale of minimum 51 % stake in PNB Housing Finance Limited to the potential acquirers,” PNB Housing Finance said on Tuesday after market hours.

As on date, PNB owns 32.79% and Quality Investment Holdings owns 32.36% of the paid up equity share capital of the Company. The Board of Directors of the Company has been apprised about the same, it added.

Earlier, on May 8, Quality Investment Holdings, an arm of the global private equity giant Carlyle, had sold 8 million shares of PNB Housing Finance, translating into about 4.8% of its equity, for around Rs 10.24 billion through block deals. The Carlyle Group sold shares at an average price of Rs 1,280 per share, data shows.

Panic selling post RBI ban opens door for cryptocurrency arbitrage

Amid the panic induced by the freezing of bank accounts run by cryptocurrency exchanges in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) direction in April, traders in India found a lucrative arbitrage opportunity to mint money like never before.

It all transpired on a cryptocurrency exchange platform Koinex, which had announced that it will not be accepting any more cash deposits in its digital wallet after July 6 and will not provide a cash-out facility for cryptocurrency holdings after 2pm on Monday. As the deadline approached, people sold their holdings in large ...Read Full Story

HCL Technologies gains 4% as board mulls share buyback proposal

HCL Technologies was up 4% to Rs 1,000 on the BSE in early morning trade after the company said on Monday after market hours that it will consider share buy-back on July 12. "The Board of Directors of the Company is scheduled to be held on Thursday, July 12, 2018, to consider a proposal for buy-back of equity shares of the company," HCL Technologies said in a BSE filing. 

The announcement comes within a month of Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), the country's largest software exporter, declaring an Rs 160 billion share buy-back programme at Rs 2,100 a share. HCL Technologies had last year offered buy-back of shares at Rs 1,000 apiece, a 17% premium over its prevailing trading price at that time. Thus far in the calendar year 2018, HCL Technologies (up 12%) has underperformed the TCS (up 39%) and Infosys (up 25%). On comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 6% during the period.

Bandhan Bank hits highest level since listing; up 56% against issue price

Shares of Bandhan Bank, which hit a new high of Rs 585, up 5% on Tuesday, was trading at its highest level since listing on March 27, 2018. The stock gained 54% over the issue price of Rs 375. Since April 26, post FY18 results, Bandhan Bank has outperformed the market by surging 16% after the private sector lender reported 21% year on year (YoY) growth in net profit at Rs 13.46 billion. Net interest income grew 26% at Rs 30.32 billion over the previous fiscal. Bandhan Bank is a unique business model of high yielding micro finance loan portfolio (94% priority sector fulfilment) and low cost deposit franchise with 34.3% CASA offered in the ambit of a commercial bank, according to analysts ICICI Securities. 

“Net interest margin (NIM) was at 9.8% for FY18. With low cost funds, we expect NIM to sustain at around 9% even as the bank starts building non-micro loans. Along with higher NIM, low operating cost at around 35% C/I ratio remains its key differentiator, high RoA driver. Its opex to AUM ratio was at 4% for FY18. We expect high RoA of 3.5-4%, RoE >20% to sustain. With almost double NIM, RoA vs. HDFC Bank & lower cost to income (C/I) ratio, with no legacy corporate portfolio pains, we believe Bandhan Bank will command higher premium to HDFC Bank,” the brokerage firm said in recent report. The brokerage firm had initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation with 12 month target price of Rs 600 per share.

HEG, Graphite India hit new high on expectations of robust Q1 results

Shares of graphite electrode players -- Graphite India (up 4% at Rs 1,027 per share) and HEG (up 3% at Rs 3885 per share) hit their respective new highs on the BSE in intra-day trade on expectations of continuous healthy performance by these companies on the back of increasing realisations. “We expect companies to report a robust EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization). 

HEG and Graphite India are likely to report strong EBITDA margins of 66.7% and 63.5%, respectively during April-June quarter (Q1FY19),” ICICI Securities said in result preview. The brokerage firm expects HEG to continue to report robust profitability for Q1FY19 supported by consistently increasing realisations.

Mahindra & Mahindra gains for fifth straight session, hits new high

Stock Market - Shares of Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) were quoting higher for the fifth straight trading days, hitting new high of Rs 940, up 2% on the BSE, after the government last week increased the minimum support price (MSP) of kharif crops for 2018-19.
In past six trading sessions, M&M has rallied 6% as compared to 1.5% rise in the S&P BSE Sensex. In past four months, it surged 29% against 7.5% rise in the benchmark index.

According to M&M, the Government’s plan to double farmer income by 2022 is expected to open many new opportunities for Mahindra’s Farm Equipment Sector.

With the Government’s strong focus on improving farm productivity and the adoption of better agricultural practices, the sector is poised for sustained growth. With a normal monsoon forecast by major global weather forecasting agencies, the Farm Equipment Sector is ideally positioned for the near and mid-term, the company said in FY18 annual report.

Nifty outlook and top trading ideas from Prabhudas Lilladher for today

Stock Market and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, Research Analyst - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Nifty has its daily & weekly trend turned up, however, needs to cross now the crucial hurdle of 10,830-10,850. Bank Nifty continues with its weekly trend down. The support for the week is seen at 10,580 while resistance is seen at 10,900. Auto sector and FMCG continue to be in positive while other sectors, for now, show exhaustion.


BUY CENTURY TEXTILES
CMP: Rs 918.85
TARGET:Rs 1,000
STOP LOSS: Rs 870
The stock has witnessed a decent correction from the peak of 1265 to show signs of bottoming out at around 850 levels and currently has produced a bullish candle pattern in the daily chart to show strength and is poised for an upward movement in the coming days with the bias improving and turning out to positive. The RSI also has been hovering near the oversold zone and currently has indicated a steep rise to signify still more further rise and with decent volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 1,000 keeping a stop loss of 870.

Paint stocks in focus; Asian Paints, Berger Paints hit new high

Stock Market - Shares of paint companies were in focus with Asian Paints and Berger Paints India hitting their respective new highs on the BSE on expectation of a healthy volume growth in April-June quarter (Q1FY19).
Berger Paints India has rallied 4% to Rs 307 on the BSE in intra-day trade, surpassing its previous high of Rs 305 recorded on May 29, 2018. Asian Paints hit a new high of Rs 1,348, up 1.7%, extending its past two days 2% gain on the BSE.

Asian Paints earlier today said that the board of directors of the company will meet on Tuesday, 24th July, 2018, to consider and approve the audited standalone financial results of the Company for the quarter ended 30th June, 2018 (Q1FY19).

“Asian Paints likely to record sales growth of around 15% year on year (YoY) to Rs 43.88 billion in Q1FY19 mainly due to around 12% YoY volume growth. Higher volume growth would be largely on account of lower base (GST related de-stocking of inventory),” ICICI Securities said in Q1FY19 results preview.

Buy ITC for a target of Rs 290 and stop loss of Rs 258: Prabhudas Lilladher

Stock Market - Nifty outlook and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, Research Analyst - Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Nifty has resisted around the 10,780 levels and once again was not able to breach the upper band of around 10,820 levels. The momentum witnessed a day before fizzled out and the bias and sentiment turned once again cautious. However, the support for the day is seen at 10,680 while resistance is seen at 10,810. Auto sector continue to show momentum while Cement stocks also has indicated a positive revival.

BUY ITC
CMP: Rs 272.50
TARGET: Rs 290
STOP LOSS: Rs 258
The stock has witnessed a correction from the peak of 288 to indicate signs of bottoming out at around levels and has showed a positive candle pattern in the daily chart to signify strength and potential to rise further in the coming days. The chart looks attractive and with the RSI also indicating a trend reversal has signaled a buy and has maintained a positive bias in the stock. With good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 290 keeping a stop loss of 258.