Despite Delhi MCD win, wary BJP allows Kejriwal to settle AAP infighting

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is busy imploding. At stake is its government in Delhi and the reputation of party chief, Arvind Kejriwal. Time is running out for the Delhi chief minister to get his house in order.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is keen to fish in troubled waters, but its recent success in Delhi civic polls has come as an eye-opener. It is conscious of the fact that the primary reason of its success in the civic polls was the split in opposition votes. This has made the party a tad circumspect in forcing fresh assembly polls in Delhi.

This is where senior AAP leader Amanatullah Khan’s allegations on Kumar Vishwas, a prominent AAP leader, become significant. Khan, a member of AAP’s political affairs committee, has accused Vishwas of attempting a coup to dislodge Kejriwal. Khan has further alleged that Vishwas, if he were to fail, would then proceed to split the party to walk away with AAP legislators to the BJP fold with each legislator being offered Rs 30 crore.

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Party chief Kejriwal has come to Kumar’s defence. “Kumar is my younger brother. Some people are trying to drive a wedge between us. They are the enemies of the party. They should refrain. No one can separate us,” he tweeted. Vishwas retweeted Kejriwal’s tweet.

But the loss in the civic polls has rattled Kejriwal. More than the number of seats, it was the precipitous fall in the party’s vote share that has the party leadership shaking. The AAP got 26.23 per cent, which is half of the 54.30 per cent it bagged in the 2015 assembly polls that it had swept by winning 67 of Delhi’s 70 assembly seats.

Interestingly, it wasn’t the BJP but the Congress and smaller parties that have gained at AAP’s expense. The Congress increased its vote share to 21.09 per cent in the recent civic polls. This is up from the 9.8 per cent in the 2015 assembly polls.
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MCD election 2017: Threat for AAP govt, Delhi may see early Assembly polls

The results of the Delhi civic polls lead to some obvious conclusions, and not so obvious near-term possibilities. These include fresh assembly polls in Delhi by the end of the year, the likelihood of several incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Lok Sabha members might be replaced in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and more leaders quitting the Congress party.

1. Modi wave

The BJP victory in the polls is primarily because of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, brilliantly leveraged by party chief Amit Shah with deft organisational work.
It is true that BJP won the last two civic polls as well, but the party campaign in Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls focused on Modi’s leadership, not of any local leaders. Today, Shah credited the victory to Modi's leadership.

2. Alarm bells for BJP Lok Sabha MPs

The BJP fielded fresh faces in 267 of 272 municipal wards. It helped BJP beat anti-incumbency, and present itself as a new and improved version under Modi. This should worry incumbent legislators and Lok Sabha members of the party.
As Gujarat chief minister, Modi used to replace at least a third of all sitting legislators before every assembly polls. He led the party to three consecutive assembly victories in 2002, 2007 and 2012. It is likely that Modi and Shah could replace party’s sitting legislators in the forthcoming polls in Gujarat and Karnataka.

3. The AAP government in Delhi could be short-lived.

AAP founder Shanti Bhushan has gone on record to state that AAP’s hope of having Rajya Sabha representation in 2018 is likely to remain a pipedream. Three Rajya Sabha seats from Delhi fall vacant next year, and AAP is sure to win all with its massive majority in the Delhi assembly. But there is growing dissension in the party against its leadership.

4. Question mark over Arvind Kejriwal as a challenger to Modi

Until some months back, Kejriwal was this bright star on the Indian political firmament. He was considered as a leader for the future. In the years to come, many expected him to provide the leadership to non-BJP forces. But Kejriwal’s reputation is in tatters.
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