Top trading ideas by HDFC Securities: Sell Eicher Motors, Pidilite

Nifty outlook and top technical calls by Vinay Rajani, technical analyst at HDFC Securities:

Nifty View
Nifty is in continuation of a downtrend. Near-term support for Nifty is placed at 10,200, below which further panic selling may emerge. Far support for Nifty is placed at 9,875. Resistances for the Nifty is seen at 10,410, above which short-term trend would reverse from bearish to bullish.

SELL EICHER MOTORS
CMP: Rs 21,086
Target: Rs 19,500
Stop loss: Rs 22,300
The stock price has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms on the short-term charts. The stock has been trading in a narrow range for last 4 trading session. The stock is likely to resume its downtrend by breaking down below the short-term consolidation. We recommend selling Eicher Motors for the target of 19,500, keeping SL at 22,300.

SELL PIDILITE
CMP: Rs 914
Target: Rs 860
Stop loss: Rs 950
The stock price has broken down below long-term upward sloping trend line on the weekly chart. The stock price has reached below its 200 DMA. Short term moving averages are trading below long-term moving averages, indicating a bearish trend. Lower tops and lower bottoms have started forming. We recommend selling Pidilite Industires for the target of 860, keeping SL at 950.

Buy Dhampur Sugars at a target of Rs 168, SL of Rs 120: Prabhudas Lilladher

Nifty outlook and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, research analyst - technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Nifty is attempting to hold 10,200 levels with all the volatility and other factors bringing a constraint to an up move. Amidst all sectors in a current market scenario, IT and Pharma sectors are well placed which could be the market movers. The support for the day is seen at 34,030/10,220 while resistance is seen at 34,500/10,360. Bank Nifty would have a range of 24,240-24,800. FMCG and Auto continue to be in corrective phase.

BUY AUROBINDO PHARMA
CMP: Rs 766.75
TARGET: Rs 850
STOP LOSS: Rs 710
The stock has made a higher bottom formation pattern in the daily chart with the current positive bullish candle has moved past the 34WMA moving average to signify strength and has potential to rise further in the coming days. The chart looks attractive and with the RSI also indicating a trend reversal has made the bias positive to signal a buy in this stock. With decent consistent volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 850 keeping a stop loss of 710.

BUY DHAMPUR SUGARS
CMP: Rs 142.70
TARGET: Rs 168
STOP LOSS: Rs 120
The stock has been on the rise after the formation of a higher bottom pattern in the daily chart and currently has moved above the significant 200DMA to show strength and we anticipate the stock to move further upward in the coming days. The volume has been on the rise in recent times and with the chart looking good technically, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 168 keeping a stop loss of 120.

IL&FS group shares locked in lower circuit; ITNL, IL&FS Engg fall 10%

Shares of three listed IL&FS group companies are locked in their respective lower circuits on the BSE after the rating agency Brickwork Ratings downgraded the rating for the non-convertible debentures (NCDs).

IL&FS Engineering and Constructions (IECCL) and IL&FS Transportation Networks (ITNL) are frozen 10% lower circuits at Rs 22.70 and Rs 27.25, respectively, while IL&FS Investment Managers down 5% at Rs 9.81 on the BSE. There were only sellers seen on these counters. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was trading 0.79% lower at 34,105 at 09:38 am.

In last week, all these stocks had outperformed the market by surging up to 90% after the government took control of infrastructure financier Infrastructure Leasing & Financial Services (IL&FS).

YES Bank extends recovery; stock rises 21% in two sessions

Shares of YES Bank have risen for the second consecutive day, gaining over 10 per cent to Rs 223 levels on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) in intraday trade today, after the private bank said that it is fully prepared for the succession plan for its managing director and chief executive officer and will finalise two external experts for the search committee by October 7.

The stock has risen over 21 per cent in the past two sessions after it hit a 28-month low last week.

"Search & Selection Committee, assisted by a Global Leadership Advisory Firm, will evaluate both internal and external candidates and make suitable recommendations to the Board of Directors for onward submission to RBI.," the bank said in a regulatory filing on Monday.

YES Bank on Monday also released its unaudited financial results for the quarter to September. The bank registered a 41 per cent year-on-year rise in deposits at Rs 2.23 lakh crore in the second quarter (Q2FY19) while the CASA ratio grew 28.2 per cent YoY.

Gross non-performing assets stood at 1.35 per cent of gross advances compared with 1.82 per cent in the same quarter last year.

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Infibeam Avenues turns volatile; surges over 80% in intra-day trade

Shares of Infibeam Avenues have turned volatile on Monday surging over 80% from their record low touched in early morning trade on the BSE on back of heavy volumes.
Infibeam Avenues has moved higher by 20% to Rs 70.55 on the BSE in intra-day, bouncing back 84% from its record low of Rs 38.40 touched in early morning trade today.

The stock plunged 35% in early morning trade today, tanked 82% in past three trading days from Rs 215 on Wednesday, September 26, 2018. Despite today’s gain from its record low, the stock was still down 70% in past three trading days. It hit an all-time high of Rs 243 on September 18, 2018, on the BSE in intra-day trade.

At 10:07 am; the stock was up 14% at Rs 67.10 against its Friday’s close of Rs 58.80. The trading volumes on the counter more than doubled with a combined 70 million equity shares changed on the BSE and NSE.

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Bandhan Bank tanks 20% as RBI bars it from opening new branches

Shares of Bandhan Bank are locked in lower circuit of 20% at Rs 451 per share on the BSE following Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI's) decision to stop the private sector lender from opening new branches and freezing the remuneration of its managing director & chief executive officer (MD & CEO) Chandra Shekhar Ghosh.
The stock was trading at its lowest level since its listing on March 27, 2018. It has fallen 39% from its all-time high level of Rs 741 touched on August 9, 2018, on the BSE in intra-day trade.

The trading volumes on the counter more than doubled with a combined 3.79 million shares changed hands on the NSE and BSE till 09:30 am. There were pending sell orders for 3.57 million shares on both the exchanges so far.

“The RBI has communicated to us that since the Bank was not able to bring down the shareholding of Non Operative Financial Holding Company (NOFHC) to 40% as required under the licensing condition, general permission to open new branches stands withdrawn and the Bank can open branches with prior approval of RBI,” Bandhan Bank on Friday said in a regulatory filing.

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Commodity outlook by Tradebulls Securities: Sell copper, buy natural gas

Commodity outlook and trading ideas by Bhavik Patel - Sr. Technical Analyst (Commodities), Tradebulls:

The dollar index (DXY) this week has traded roughly in the range of 93.30-94.08. We expect Indian Rupee (INR) to trade in the range of 72.50-73.30 next week. Any correction in Indian Rupee will only come if it manages to sustain below 72.20. If USDINR breaches 73.06 in Future, we may see rapid depreciation in our currency till 73.30-73.50. INR got a small boost with a decline in US Treasury yields reducing support for the greenback. US 10 yr yield decline from 3.110 to 3.05 which has put brakes on DXY. However given the hawkish view of Fed, we expect DXY to trade above 94.50 and so we are not expecting a significant correction in our currency. Next week chances are high for RBI’s rate hike so INR may get support but as long as 72.20 is not breached, we remain convinced that USDINR will remain weak.

Sell Copper
Target: Rs 438
Stop loss: Rs 460
Copper made ‘shooting star’ candlestick pattern at 463.25 and now has retraced to 452. In last 3 trading session, Copper has made lower high which is an indication of buyers strength getting exhausted and bears trying to capture the trend. Copper has broken the last 3 trading session low which further confirms bears getting hang of the commodity. RSI_14 has also retraced from oversold territory and is now currently at 62. We expect Copper to re-test the lows of 738 where 200 DMA is placed and recommend short with a stop loss of 460.

Buy Natural Gas
Target: Rs 226
Stop loss: Rs 207
Natural Gas has made ‘hanging man’ candlestick pattern on the daily scale near 223.4 and has since retraced back to 216.40. Overall trend remains bullish but risk-reward ratio settles better near creating long position near Rs.212. On the daily scale, 20 DMA comes near 212 with previous swing high also collaborating near 212 making it important support. We would recommend creating long position near 212 with a target of 226 and stop loss below 207 on a closing basis.

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Top trading ideas by Tradebulls Securities: Buy United Spirits, sell TVS

Nifty outlook and top trading ideas from Sacchitanand Uttekar, DVP – Technical (Equity), Tradebulls Securities:

Nifty Outlook:
Nifty did display some resilience & witnessed a bounce after facing relentless selling from 11,500 zone. The market breadth has not been that comforting while the volatility index continued to scale higher. On the pattern front, the index did witness a Harami formation on Tuesday session but the confirmation of the same is yet awaited in terms of an affirmative close. Hence, any non-sustenance above 10970 could unlock fresh pessimism & push the index towards its 200 DEMA placed around 10,780. As the broader trend looks weak pullback towards 11,170 zone should be used to create fresh shorts with a Stop above 11,310.

Stock: United Spirits
Reco.: BUY
CMP: Rs 533
Since May 2018 the stock has been declining within the bounds of a channel pattern. The wave formation within the pattern also resembles a Bullish Three Drives Harmonic structure. The support near 520 looks strong & a Bullish Harami formation confirms the same. Positional longs could be deployed with a stop below 505 & a move back to 600 could be witnessed in the coming month.

Stock: TVS Motor Company
Reco.: SELL
CMP: Rs 584
Rising wedge on the daily scale with the stock facing resistance near its 200 DEMA around 595. Shorts could be initiated below 575 with a Stop above 596 for a pattern target up to 545.

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Nifty outlook and top technical calls by HDFC Securities for today

Nifty outlook and technical calls by Vinay Rajani Technical Analyst, HDFC Securities:
Nifty View
Nifty managed to hold above the previous week’s low of 10866 and recovered nicely, to close at 11067. Bank Nifty also recovered sharply on the back of short covering. Due to the oversold condition of many of the beaten-down stocks in large cap segment, the market witnessed a pullback rally. On the upside, Nifty has got resistance at 11170-11200. It would be advisable to hold Nifty longs with 10866 stop loss.

Buy BIOCON
CMP: Rs 701.55
Target: Rs. 740
Stop-loss: Rs 675
The stock price has registered a new all-time high with significant volumes. The stock price has also broken out from last 8 month’s consolidation. Pharma Sector has also been outperforming. Oscillators are also showing bullish momentum for the stock. We recommend buying Biocon for the target of 740, keeping SL at 675.

Buy DIVIS LAB
CMP: Rs 1388
Target Rs. 1500
Stop-loss Rs 1328
The stock price has been hovering around its all time. Despite a heavy sell-off in the most of the stocks, Divis has been able to show resilient movement in the recent downswings in markets. Short term moving averages are trading above long-term moving averages, indicating a bullish trend. We recommend buying Divislab for the target of 1500, keeping SL at 1328.

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YES Bank gains 6% ahead of board meeting today

Shares of YES Bank were up 6% at Rs 239 per share on the BSE in intra-day trade on Tuesday ahead of the board meeting to be held later in the day to decide the future course of action after the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) curtailed the term of its managing director (MD) and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Rana Kapoor and asked the bank to look for a replacement by January 2019.
“Reserve Bank of India has vide letter dated September 17, 2018, intimated that Rana Kapoor may continue as the managing director (MD) & CEO till 31 January 2019, and the board of directors of the Bank are scheduled to meet on September 25, 2018 to decide on the future course of action,” YES Bank said on Wednesday, September 19, 2018, in a regulatory filing.

After the announcements, the stock of YES Bank had slipped 29% in past two trading days till Monday. It touched a 52-week low of Rs 210 on Friday in intra-day trade.

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OMCs, aviation stks drop as crude rises; IndiGo, Jet Airways hit 52-wk lows

Shares of aviation and oil and gas companies came under selling pressure on Tuesday as the crude oil prices hit a four-year high.

State-run GAIL was trading over 4 per cent lower at Rs 365.65 apiece on BSE, after hitting an intraday low of Rs 364.90. BPCL was down nearly 3 per cent at Rs 357.40.

Shares of Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) was trading two and a half per cent lower at Rs 242 while those of Indian Oil was down 1 per cent at Rs 153.5. Oil India was trading at Rs 217, down 0.37 per cent.

At the time of writing this report, the S&P BSE Oil & Gas index was down 1 per cent at 14,762.

In the aviation space, all the three stocks - SpiceJet, IndiGo and Jet Airways, hit their respective 52-week lows.

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HCL Technologies hits record high; stock up 24% in three months

Shares of HCL Technologies hit a record high of Rs 1,125 per share, up 2.6% in intra-day trade, surpassing their previous high of Rs 1,107 per share recorded on April 23, 2018, on the BSE.
The stock was trading above its share buyback price of Rs 1,100.

In the past three months, HCL Technologies has outperformed the market by surging 24% after the company announced the share buyback proposal. In comparison, the S&P BSE Sensex was up 4% during the period.

The stock had turned ex-date for buyback of shares on August 30, 2018. IT services firm said its Rs 40 billion buyback offer will commence on September 18 and will close on October 3.

Analysts at JP Morgan overweight on HCL Technologies with Jun-19 price target of Rs 1,180 (previously Rs 1,050).

“Our price target is based on a one-year forward P/E multiple of 15.5x mildly increased from 15x as weaker INR allows HCL Technologies to make investments that it might have otherwise deferred helping the cause of revenue growth. We factor in higher margins in FY19 vs. FY20 as gains from the weaker INR (in FY19) will get passed on to clients effective FY20,” the brokerage firm said in IT Services sector update.

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Usha Martin hits 52-week high as Tata Steel to acquire steel business

Shares of Usha Martin hit a 52-week high of Rs 36.40 per share, up 16% on the BSE in the opening deal after Tata Steel has executed a definitive agreement for the acquisition of the company’s steel business through a slump sale on a going concern basis.
“The company has executed definitive agreements for sale of its steel business to Tata Steel or its subsidiaries through a slump sale on going concern basis for consideration being in the rage of Rs 43 billion – Rs 47 billion,” Usha Martin said on Saturday in a press release.

The closing of the acquisition is subject to the fulfilment of various conditions under the agreements. The parties shall jointly work towards fulfilment of conditions precedent which are largely regulatory approvals required for the transfer of the business undertaking. All the employees pertaining to the steel business will transfer as part of the acquisition, Tata Steel said in a statement.

The steel business undertaking of Usha Martin inter-alia comprises of a specialized around 1.0 mtpa alloy based manufacturing capacity

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Buy Biocon for a target of Rs 730, stop loss at Rs 650: Prabhudas Lilladher

Nifty outlook and few trading ideas by Vaishali Parekh, research analyst - technical research at Prabhudas Lilladher:

NIFTY VIEW
Nifty has corrected by 7.5% from the peak of 11,750 levels, however, has recovered from the intraday low of 10866, but still no clarity on market bottoming out. 200 DMA lies at 10,750 levels with the RSI at 37. Bank Nifty too corrected by 11.8%, already broken the 200 DMA. The bias remains corrective until we see some signs of reversal. The support for the week is seen 36,060/10,900 while resistance is seen at 37640/11400. Bank Nifty would have a range of 24,830-26,380. OMCs are now showing some signs of reversal.

BUY BIOCON
CMP: Rs 676.90
TARGET: Rs 730
STOP LOSS: Rs 650
The stock has maintained its rising trend in spite of the weak market scenario maintain above the significant moving averages of 50DMA and 200 DMA and look poised for further still upward move in the coming days. The RSI is on the rise and with improving volume participation, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 730 keeping a stop loss of 650.

BUY IOC
CMP: Rs 158.15
TARGET: Rs 180
STOP LOSS: Rs 148
The stock has maintained a strong support at around 150 levels and has indicated a decent revival to signify strength and has potential to rise further. The stock has almost given a breakout above the 50DMA and with the RSI on the rise has maintained the positive bias. With good volume participation witnessed, we recommend a buy in this stock for an upside target of 180 keeping a stop loss of 148.

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Stocks to watch: YES Bank, Jet Airways and Hotel Leelaventure

Global cues are likely to dominate investor sentiment on Friday. US equities hit a fresh record high on Thursday, boosted by gains in industrial companies on continued relief that fresh US and China tariffs were less damaging than feared. Asian stocks, too, rose in the early trade.

Here's a list of top stocks that may remain on investors' radar in today's session -

YES Bank: The stock is likely to remain in focus today as the RBI has curtailed the term of Yes Bank's founding CEO Rana Kapoor and asked the private sector lender to look for his replacement by January 2019. Brokerages such as IDFC Securities and Citi have downgraded the stock while Macquarie have maintained 'Outperform' rating.

Hotel Leelaventure: The cash-strapped company on Thursday said it had defaulted on payment of quarterly interest of Rs 21.2 million to LIC. Hotel Leelaventure, which currently has a debt of over Rs 36.62 billion, had issued secured redeemable NCDs on private placement basis, aggregating Rs 900 million to LIC in December 2008.

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Equity, currency & commodity markets shut today on account of Muharram

India's currency, debt and equity and commodity markets are closed on Thursday on account of Muharram. Trading will resume on Friday.

On Wednesday, the S&P BSE Sensex ended at 37,121, down 169 points while the broader Nifty50 index settled at 11,234, down 45 points.

HDFC Asset Management Company (down over 8 per cent) and Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management (down over 11 per cent) lost ground on Wednesday, a day after the capital markets regulator Sebi announced major changes to the fee structure for the Rs 25-trillion mutual fund (MF) industry, a decision that will hit the profits of asset management companies (AMCs) but result in savings for investors. The regulator capped the so-called total expense ratio for fund houses with equity assets up to Rs 500 billion at 1.05 per cent, down from as much as 1.75 per cent charged earlier.

Global Markets
Asian stocks rose in early trade on Thursday following a second day of gains on global share markets amid easing investor concern over the impact from the U.S.-China trade war, but markets remained cautious.

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Stock calls by HDFC securities: Sell RIL, Escorts

Nifty outlook and technical calls by Vinay Rajani, Technical Analyst, HDFC Securities for today:

Nifty View
Nifty closed at 11,279, the lowest levels on closing basis of the recent down swing started from 11,760. Lower top and lower bottom formation, bearish moving average setup and bearish oscillator setup clearly shows that markets are in a down trend. Next support for Nifty is seen in the range of 11,000-11,100, which is derived from 100 DMA and long term upward trend line on the daily charts. Resistance is shifted down to 11,400 in Nifty. Bank Nifty to likely to test 200 DMA support of 26,100.

Sell Reliance
CMP: Rs 1,217
Target: Rs 1,160
Stop-loss: Rs 1,250
Stock price has closed below its 20-DMA. Bearish head and shoulder breakdown is also seen on the daily charts. Oscillators like RSI and MACD have turned bearish on the charts. We recommend selling Reliance for the downside target of Rs 1,160, keeping SL at Rs 1,250.

Sell Escorts
CMP: Rs 761
Target: Rs 725
Stop-loss: Rs 787
Stock has been forming lower tops and lower bottoms on the daily charts. Auto stocks have been underperforming for last couple of months. After 5 days of consolidation, stock resumed its downtrend with higher volumes, indicates continuation of a bearish trend. We recommend selling Escorts for the downside target of Rs 725, keeping SL at Rs 787.

HDFC AMC, Reliance Nippon tumble 8% after Sebi cuts total expense ratio

Shares of asset management companies tumbled on Wednesday, a day after the capital markets regulator Sebi announced major changes to the fee structure for the Rs 25-trillion mutual fund (MF) industry, a decision that will hit the profits of asset management companies (AMCs) but result in savings for investors.

The regulator has capped the total expense ratio (TER) for fund houses with equity assets up to Rs 500 billion at 1.05 per cent, down from as much as 1.75 per cent charged earlier. AMCs with lower assets under management (AUM) will be allowed to charge a higher TER, based on slabs. Sebi also said the industry would have to move to a full “trail model” for commissions. It also capped fees for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) at a maximum of 1 per cent. READ MORE

“The mutual fund industry has grown by leaps and bounds. However, the benefits of economy of scale have not been fully shared with investors,” said Ajay Tyagi, chairman, Sebi.

At 10:12 am, shares of Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management was trading 8 points lower at Rs 197 apiece on BSE. HDFC Asset Management Company was also down 8 per cent at Rs 1,417.80. 

Stocks to watch: RCom, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma and sugar stocks

Investors are likely to take cues from global peers on Wednesday. In a tit-for-tat move, China added $60 billion of US products to its import tariff list in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s planned levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. That apart, movemement in the rupee will also be keenly watched. At 07:39 am, the Nifty futures on the Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX) were trading 2.50 points or 0.02 per cent lower at 11,312.50.

Below is the list of top stocks that may hog the limelight in today's session -

Reliance Communications: At the 14th AGM, RCom Chairman Anil Ambani announced that the company will exit telecom business completely, owing to intense slugfest in the sector and instead focus on real estate.

MCX: The stock may remain in focus today after Sebi on Tuesday has approved a proposal to allow foreign investors to trade in commodity derivatives market.
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Merger negative for Vijaya Bank, BoB; don't rush to buy PSBs, say analysts

The three state-owned banks ‐ Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank ‐ saw a mixed reaction at the bourses on Tuesday, a day after the government proposed to amalgamate them into a combined entity.

The largest of the three, Bank of Baroda, tanked over 10 per cent in intra-day deals to Rs 116 levels on the NSE, Dena Bank hit its upper circuit limit for the day of 20 per cent at Rs 19.05. Vijaya Bank, too, moved up over 2 per cent to hit an intra-day high of Rs 66 on the NSE. In comparison, the Nifty 50 was trading flat.

While calling it a step in the right direction, analysts say this merger could be a game changer for the PSU banking space and throws up the possibility of public sector banks (PSBs) being ultimately consolidated into seven large entities going ahead.

“The move is a step in the right direction. Vijaya Bank is concentrated in southern India where Bank of Baroda does not have much presence. Dena Bank has a focus in Maharashtra. Such a strategy would also minimise the need for retrenching a significant number of employees and also for shutting down of a large number of branches as the concentration of these three banks are largely unique in terms of geographies and they would complement each other,” says G Chokkalingam, founder and managing director at Equinomics Research.