Market sees UP poll results as a litmus test for the BJP

UP POLLS 2017 - Markets have been consolidating and moving in a tight range ahead of the outcome of the assembly poll outcome in key states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur – to be announced on March 11. Analysts say the outcome could create distractions (or positives) for the government and will be interpreted as a referendum on the government’s demonetisation drive. 

The election outcome in UP (the biggest state by population), is being dubbed as the semi–final to the 2019 general elections, and appears to be heading towards a close fight.

Here is a quick compilation of what the leading market experts think about the possible outcome and its implication for the economy and markets:

Samir Arora, founder and fund manager, Helios Capital

We do not believe that outcome of state elections can be a big development for the market. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win in UP (the only election that matters in this round, if at all). Even if BJP does not win, we don’t think that investors will project this to derive conclusions about 2019 national elections. If BJP wins as expected, the market will have more reasons to go up for sure CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY

UP polls: Brisk voting in Varanasi, women turn up in large numbers

UP Assembly Polls 2017 - Brisk voting is reported on Wednesday in Varanasi, the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the first two hours in the seventh and final phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh.

A large number of women and senior citizens queued up outside the polling stations to cast their votes.

Aware that it was International Women's Day on the day of polling, most women told the waiting media outside the polling booths that they were voting to ensure safety and security for women and girls.

Professors and members from the teaching fraternity turned up in large numbers to cast their votes in the early hours in the Benaras Hindu University (BHU).

Ajay Rai, the Congress candidate from Pindra, also cast his vote along with his wife. He first performed puja at a temple before heading for the polling station.

Rai had unsuccessfully challenged Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Varanasi has eight seats and there is a close contest on all the seats.(READ MORE)

Uttar Pradesh is the BJP's to lose. Or is it?

UP POLLS 2017 - As counting day on 11 March approaches, it seems as difficult as ever to gauge which way the political wind in Uttar Pradesh (UP) is blowing. Even before the campaign began, pre-election opinion polls offered little help, showing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance neck and neck, with the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) lagging.

We know from elections in Delhi (2015), Bihar (2015) and West Bengal (2016) that a dead heat in pre-election polls is almost never a good predictor of the eventual outcome.

So what are the BJP’s chances of pulling off a win? If the starting point is the BJP’s historic 2014 victory, its lead seems unassailable. The BJP won 328 of 403 assembly segments, including 253 with more than 40% of the vote, and as Praveen Chakravarty states, for it to win fewer than 200 seats even if “two of the opposition parties get together, the BJP would still have to lose more than 10% of its voters”.(READ MORE)

EC orders FIR against Manipur BJP office bearers over ads in newspaper

Manipur Elections 2017 - The Election Commission on Friday night ordered registration of an FIR against office bearers "concerned" of Manipur Bharatiya Janata Party for publishing an advertisement without the requisite approval from the certification panel.

On the basis of a report by poll authorities in Manipur, it also directed the state chief electoral officer get FIRs filed against eight newspapers for publishing the election advertisement.

The ads were published on Friday and the first phase of elections in the state will be held on Saturday.

The Commission identified the papers as Sangai Express -- Manipuri and English editions -- Poknapham, People's Chronicle, Naharolgi, Thoudang, Imphal free press, Echel Express and Huiyen Lanpao.

While there is no bar on the publication of election advertisements 48 hours before the polling, a rule introduced by the Commission during the Bihar Assembly polls says that such advertisements should be cleared by a certification committee.(READ MORE)

Is Modi's presence in Varanasi a sign of BJP's desperation to win UP polls?

UP Assembly Elections 2017 - Till the third phase of the UP assembly elections, the BJP had a relatively quiet campaign, but it seems to have changed its tactic mid-way through the fourth phase, making excessive use of the prime minister.

Varanasi: For the last three days, the political capital of the country seems to have shifted to Varanasi. Yesterday, it witnessed the rally of an ex-chief minister, a road show of the current chief minister with the vice president of the main opposition party, and a ‘de-facto road show’ of the prime minister – all in a single day. As residents breathe a sigh of relief after yesterday’s historic road jam, their problems are not likely to ease till March 6, the day when the campaign for the last phase of the UP elections comes to an end.

Most hotels are fully booked and scores of OB vans are stationed in Varanasi as journalists from Delhi and UP remain camped in the city, along with a number of star campaigners, officials and security personnel. There is a camera in every other tea-kachori shop, clichéd talk shows in boats on the Ganga or at Assighat have flooded television screens, and ‘local experts’, popularly called ganmany naagrik, are overworked as journalists run out of ideas to do stories on. In this scenario, a surprising development is the sudden increase in rallies and the presence of Prime Minister Modi in Uttar Pradesh.(READ MORE)

PM Modi's jibe at Rahul Gandhi over 'coconut juice' remark

UP Elections 2017 - Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday took a jibe at Congress leader Rahul Gandhi for his "coconut juice" and "potato factory" remarks.

"There is a Congress leader, and I want to pray for his long life...He recently went to Manipur to address an election rally. There he told farmers that he would extract juice from coconuts and send it to London. In fact, a coconut possesses water (and not juice) and it is grown in Kerala," he said addressing a rally in Maharajganj, UP.

"It is like setting up a potato factory," Modi said referring to Rahul Gandhi's earlier remarks that he wants to set up potato factories in Uttar Pradesh.

"Such a talented and far-sighted leader he is," Modi said, and asked Rahul as to what he exactly he wanted to do for UP.

Addressing a poll rally in Manipur on Tuesday, the Congress leader had reportedly said, "I would also want when someone drinks coconut juice in London and sees Made in Manipur written on it."

Rahul Gandhi had earlier told farmers in Uttar Pradesh that "You all are demanding a potato factory in your area, but you should understand I am an opposition leader, I can put pressure on the government, but cannot take the decision. I cannot open a potato factory for farmers".(Read More)

150 seats in UP, AIADMK support crucial for Modi govt to win prez polls

UP POLLS 2017 - Currently, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has nearly 3.80 lakh votes in the presidential electoral college. To reach the halfway mark of 5.49 lakh votes, the party needs another 1.7 lakh votes. The over 1 lakh votes of its alliance partners, both at the Centre and in states, reduces this gap to around 70,000 votes. This is where the Uttar Pradesh assembly, with its 403 seats and a total value 83,824 votes to the presidential electoral college, is important.

The President of India is elected by the members of an electoral college that comprises the elected members of Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha and elected members of all legislative assemblies, including Delhi and Puducherry. Nominated members, whether of Parliament or legislative assemblies, are not included.

Value of vote for each of the members of the electoral college is decided based on the population census of 1971. Therefore, value of votes differs from state to state. The value of the vote of a legislator from Uttar Pradesh, the state with the largest population, is the highest at 208, while Sikkim’s is the lowest at 7.

The Modi government would hope to meet this shortfall of 70,000 votes by winning as many seats as possible in Uttar Pradesh. It would also need to compensate from UP the likely losses that the BJP and ally Shiromani Akali Dal could suffer in Punjab. A good showing in Uttar Pradesh would also deflate the Opposition and help Modi government strategists persuade fence sitters among the regional parties to vote for the ruling coalition's candidate.(READ MORE)

Assembly Elections 2017: Why BSP's prospects in Uttar Pradesh look dim

UP ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2017 - The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), led by Mayawati, has been put across largely as a “poacher” and a “vote cutter” in the Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, dimming the party’s standing as an alternative to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress combine sought after by politically significant and big social groupings. Mayawati, known by the moniker “Behenji”, continues to inspire respect among sections of the Dalits and instills  a degree of confidence among those Muslims who recognised her potential to be a more effective challenger to the BJP than the SP-Congress in places.

However, BSP—the first party to get a majority of its own in 2007 after a long spell of messy coalitions—is unlikely to repeat that feat because the magic figure of 207 Mayawati had attained then was catalysed by a rainbow social alliance that had space for almost every major social grouping. In the ongoing polls, Mayawati has forfeited the backward caste votes, especially those of the most backward castes, and the upper caste votes to the BJP.

The BSP is not the first choice of most Muslims because they were skeptical of Mayawati’s past tendency to do business with the BJP and install herself as the chief minister if an electoral verdict was unclear. Tanveer Akhtar, a small farmer of Isauli in the Sultanpur district who supplemented his earnings by driving a hired car, said, “Mayawati remains suspect for us although she recently clarified she would rather sit out in the Opposition than go with the BJP. We can’t take her words on face value because she craves for power above everything else.”(READ MORE)

UP polls 2017: BSP has an edge and Mayawati is likely to return to power

UP Polls 2017 - Six months prior to the 2017 Assembly elections, the battle for power in Uttar Pradesh was seen as a fight between the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) led by Mayawati and the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP), which is presently ruling at the centre. The BJP's chances had dwindled slightly after its state vice president Dayashankar Singh made some inappropriate comments against Mayawati. At that point, the Samajwadi Party, the party currently in power, was widely perceived to be out of the race.

All of a sudden, a series of melodramatic incidents within the SP's ruling family catapulted Akhilesh Yadav from the status of 'half CM' to full chief minister and leader of the party. Earlier, he was often taunted to be subordinate to the SP's big four: his father Mulayam Singh Yadav, uncle Shivpal Yadav, uncle Ram Gopal Yadav and senior leader Azam Khan. The impression formed that since Mulayam was publicly taking the side of his brother Shivpal, party cadres would remain loyal to Shivpal if it came to choosing between him and Akhilesh. However, Akhilesh proved everybody wrong and now is the undisputed claimant to the chief ministership on behalf of the Samajwadi Party, with Shivpal and even Mulayam having been marginalised. The state witnessed a silent coup by a serving ruler who has been able to unshackle himself now.(Read more)