Market sees UP poll results as a litmus test for the BJP

UP POLLS 2017 - Markets have been consolidating and moving in a tight range ahead of the outcome of the assembly poll outcome in key states of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh (UP), Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur – to be announced on March 11. Analysts say the outcome could create distractions (or positives) for the government and will be interpreted as a referendum on the government’s demonetisation drive. 

The election outcome in UP (the biggest state by population), is being dubbed as the semi–final to the 2019 general elections, and appears to be heading towards a close fight.

Here is a quick compilation of what the leading market experts think about the possible outcome and its implication for the economy and markets:

Samir Arora, founder and fund manager, Helios Capital

We do not believe that outcome of state elections can be a big development for the market. Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win in UP (the only election that matters in this round, if at all). Even if BJP does not win, we don’t think that investors will project this to derive conclusions about 2019 national elections. If BJP wins as expected, the market will have more reasons to go up for sure CLICK HERE FOR THE FULL STORY

UP polls: Brisk voting in Varanasi, women turn up in large numbers

UP Assembly Polls 2017 - Brisk voting is reported on Wednesday in Varanasi, the parliamentary constituency of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, in the first two hours in the seventh and final phase of polling in Uttar Pradesh.

A large number of women and senior citizens queued up outside the polling stations to cast their votes.

Aware that it was International Women's Day on the day of polling, most women told the waiting media outside the polling booths that they were voting to ensure safety and security for women and girls.

Professors and members from the teaching fraternity turned up in large numbers to cast their votes in the early hours in the Benaras Hindu University (BHU).

Ajay Rai, the Congress candidate from Pindra, also cast his vote along with his wife. He first performed puja at a temple before heading for the polling station.

Rai had unsuccessfully challenged Narendra Modi in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Varanasi has eight seats and there is a close contest on all the seats.(READ MORE)

Uttar Pradesh is the BJP's to lose. Or is it?

UP POLLS 2017 - As counting day on 11 March approaches, it seems as difficult as ever to gauge which way the political wind in Uttar Pradesh (UP) is blowing. Even before the campaign began, pre-election opinion polls offered little help, showing the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Samajwadi Party (SP)-Congress alliance neck and neck, with the Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) lagging.

We know from elections in Delhi (2015), Bihar (2015) and West Bengal (2016) that a dead heat in pre-election polls is almost never a good predictor of the eventual outcome.

So what are the BJP’s chances of pulling off a win? If the starting point is the BJP’s historic 2014 victory, its lead seems unassailable. The BJP won 328 of 403 assembly segments, including 253 with more than 40% of the vote, and as Praveen Chakravarty states, for it to win fewer than 200 seats even if “two of the opposition parties get together, the BJP would still have to lose more than 10% of its voters”.(READ MORE)