Gujarat polls: BJP might get a rude shock, says Yogendra Yadav

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be in for a rude shock in the Gujarat Assembly elections, said noted political scientist Yogendra Yadav on Wednesday — a day before the last phase of voting in the state.

“There was a sharp swing against the BJP in the past few weeks,” and he said, adding: “Unless the trend is dramatically reversed, surveys lead to the same conclusion — defeat for the BJP.”

Yadav, a leader of the political organisation Swaraj Abhiyan with nearly two decades of experience as a psephologist, had based his projections on the data collected in three surveys since August by CSDS-ABP. He said the results if the Gujarat polls could be subdivided between urban, semi-urban, and rural areas.

Polling will be held for 93 seats on Thursday. The first phase of polling was held on December 9 for 89 of the 182 seats in the Assembly. The counting of votes is on December 18. Exit polls will be in after voting ends.

In a tweet, Yadav said the BJP was “on a solid wicket” in the 39 urban seats. “It can’t lose more than 10 seats [in urban areas].” In semi-urban areas, where it now has 36 seats, it might lose half.

Yadav forecast that the BJP faced a “steady downhill” in the 98 rural seats, where it had trailed the Congress in 2012 Assembly polls, and could now face a rout.

Gujarat Assembly elections 2017: BJP's Muslim outreach worries Congress

GUJARAT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS 2017 - As the Congress embraces “soft” Hindutva in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday reached out to the Muslim community of the state.

In Bharuch, Modi accused the Congress of stoking a Hindu-Muslim divide. He said Bharuch and Kutch, two districts with significant Muslim populations, are economically the fastest growing districts of Gujarat. The PM went on to say how during the Congress rule, celebrating festivals comes with the apprehension of violence.

The PM’s comments come on the heels of a finely-tuned Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) outreach campaign among the minority as well as the majority communities in Gujarat, which has the Congress worried.

According to Congress workers as well as activists, the feedback is increasingly that several in the Muslim community, even if they do not vote for the BJP, might not turn up in adequate numbers to vote for Congress candidates.

Of the 43.3 million people eligible to cast their votes in the state in the forthcoming Assembly polls, Muslims make a bit over nine per cent of the electorate. The state will see elections on December 9 and 14.

According to internal estimates of political parties, Muslims comprise more than 10 per cent of the electorate in 65 of the 182 Assembly seats in Gujarat. Of the 65, Muslims comprise almost a fifth of the electorate on 20 seats.

Gujarat elections 2017: BJP declares list, Rupani to contest from Rajkot

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on Friday declared its first list of 70 candidates for the Gujarat Assembly polls with Chief Minister Vijay Rupani being nominated to contest from his traditional Rajkot West constituency.

Deputy Chief Minister Nitin Patel will contest from Mehsana, his traditional constituency, while state BJP chief Jitubhai Vaghani will contest from Bhavnagar West.

Gujarat will have two-phased polls on December 9 and 14. The first phase will cover 89 constituencies in 19 districts, and the second phase 93 seats in 14 districts.

The list comes days after the deliberations at the BJP Central Election Committee attended by Prime Minister Narendra Modi under the presidentship of party chief Amit Shah.

The filing of nominations for the polls began on November 14.

Counting of votes will be taken up along with that of Himachal Pradesh on December 18.