Gujarat polls: BJP might get a rude shock, says Yogendra Yadav

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be in for a rude shock in the Gujarat Assembly elections, said noted political scientist Yogendra Yadav on Wednesday — a day before the last phase of voting in the state.

“There was a sharp swing against the BJP in the past few weeks,” and he said, adding: “Unless the trend is dramatically reversed, surveys lead to the same conclusion — defeat for the BJP.”

Yadav, a leader of the political organisation Swaraj Abhiyan with nearly two decades of experience as a psephologist, had based his projections on the data collected in three surveys since August by CSDS-ABP. He said the results if the Gujarat polls could be subdivided between urban, semi-urban, and rural areas.

Polling will be held for 93 seats on Thursday. The first phase of polling was held on December 9 for 89 of the 182 seats in the Assembly. The counting of votes is on December 18. Exit polls will be in after voting ends.

In a tweet, Yadav said the BJP was “on a solid wicket” in the 39 urban seats. “It can’t lose more than 10 seats [in urban areas].” In semi-urban areas, where it now has 36 seats, it might lose half.

Yadav forecast that the BJP faced a “steady downhill” in the 98 rural seats, where it had trailed the Congress in 2012 Assembly polls, and could now face a rout.

When our soldiers fought the Chinese, you hugged their envoy: Modi to Rahul

In a stinging attack on the Congress in poll-bound Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday said the upcoming Assembly election is a fight between trust on development and dynastic politics.

He was addressing a BJP rally in Kutch district's Bhuj town ahead of the first phase of the elections on December 9.

He also alluded to allegations thrown at him during the campaign by Congress leaders, including party vice-president Rahul Gandhi.

"This Gujarat son has no stains in his public life. You come to the state and level baseless allegations on the son of the soil... the people of the state will not forgive you," he said.

During his campaign in the state in the last few days, Gandhi had trained his guns at the Modi-led government over the Rafale fighter aircraft deal.

"The Gujarat election is a contest between trust on development and dynastic politics," the prime minister said at the rally.

Taking another dig at the opposition party, which is making all-out efforts to dislodge the long-ruling BJP in Gujarat, Modi asked, "When our soldiers were standing eye-to-eye in Dokalam for 70 days, why were you hugging the Chinese ambassador."

The Prime Minister will address a series of campaign meetings on Monday and on Wednesday in Saurashtra and South Gujarat, which go to the polls on December 9.

The elections to the 182-member Gujarat Assembly will be held in two phases on December 9 and 14. The counting of votes will be on December 18.