Gujarat polls: BJP might get a rude shock, says Yogendra Yadav

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be in for a rude shock in the Gujarat Assembly elections, said noted political scientist Yogendra Yadav on Wednesday — a day before the last phase of voting in the state.

“There was a sharp swing against the BJP in the past few weeks,” and he said, adding: “Unless the trend is dramatically reversed, surveys lead to the same conclusion — defeat for the BJP.”

Yadav, a leader of the political organisation Swaraj Abhiyan with nearly two decades of experience as a psephologist, had based his projections on the data collected in three surveys since August by CSDS-ABP. He said the results if the Gujarat polls could be subdivided between urban, semi-urban, and rural areas.

Polling will be held for 93 seats on Thursday. The first phase of polling was held on December 9 for 89 of the 182 seats in the Assembly. The counting of votes is on December 18. Exit polls will be in after voting ends.

In a tweet, Yadav said the BJP was “on a solid wicket” in the 39 urban seats. “It can’t lose more than 10 seats [in urban areas].” In semi-urban areas, where it now has 36 seats, it might lose half.

Yadav forecast that the BJP faced a “steady downhill” in the 98 rural seats, where it had trailed the Congress in 2012 Assembly polls, and could now face a rout.