Wednesday, 26 April 2017

MCD election 2017: Threat for AAP govt, Delhi may see early Assembly polls

MCD results fallout: Warning bells for BJP MPs; Kejriwal's image in tatters

The results of the Delhi civic polls lead to some obvious conclusions, and not so obvious near-term possibilities. These include fresh assembly polls in Delhi by the end of the year, the likelihood of several incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Lok Sabha members might be replaced in 2019 Lok Sabha polls and more leaders quitting the Congress party.

1. Modi wave

The BJP victory in the polls is primarily because of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, brilliantly leveraged by party chief Amit Shah with deft organisational work.
It is true that BJP won the last two civic polls as well, but the party campaign in Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) polls focused on Modi’s leadership, not of any local leaders. Today, Shah credited the victory to Modi's leadership.

2. Alarm bells for BJP Lok Sabha MPs

The BJP fielded fresh faces in 267 of 272 municipal wards. It helped BJP beat anti-incumbency, and present itself as a new and improved version under Modi. This should worry incumbent legislators and Lok Sabha members of the party.
As Gujarat chief minister, Modi used to replace at least a third of all sitting legislators before every assembly polls. He led the party to three consecutive assembly victories in 2002, 2007 and 2012. It is likely that Modi and Shah could replace party’s sitting legislators in the forthcoming polls in Gujarat and Karnataka.

3. The AAP government in Delhi could be short-lived.

AAP founder Shanti Bhushan has gone on record to state that AAP’s hope of having Rajya Sabha representation in 2018 is likely to remain a pipedream. Three Rajya Sabha seats from Delhi fall vacant next year, and AAP is sure to win all with its massive majority in the Delhi assembly. But there is growing dissension in the party against its leadership.

4. Question mark over Arvind Kejriwal as a challenger to Modi

Until some months back, Kejriwal was this bright star on the Indian political firmament. He was considered as a leader for the future. In the years to come, many expected him to provide the leadership to non-BJP forces. But Kejriwal’s reputation is in tatters.
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