Bypoll results 2018: Kairana has a loud message for Modi-Shah before 2019

The Kairana Lok Sabha bypoll result has yet again underlined the challenge that Narendra Modi-Amit Shah combine is set to face in 2019 against a united Opposition. The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP’s) loss here is seen as yet another dent in the invincibility cloak of Prime Minister Modi and party chief Shah.

With the BJP likely to struggle a repeat of its 2014 performance in much of northern India, the Kairana loss puts into sharper focus Shah’s efforts at expanding the party in areas beyond the Vindhyas and Chota Nagpur plateau, and make inroads in the Coromandel coast states.

In 2019, the BJP needs to win in the northeastern states, West Bengal, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana to offset its foreseeable losses in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, etc.

The BJP’s Kairana loss comes on the heels of its losses in recent Lok Sabha by-polls in Phulpur and Gorakhpur in eastern Uttar Pradesh, and Ajmer and Alwar in Rajasthan.

While the BJP emerged the single largest party in Karnataka, its failure to form the government jolted the confidence that its supporters had in Shah’s abilities as a ‘master strategist’. These are not good signs as Modi and Shah prepare for 2019, and the government has its work cut out for the remainder of its term.