Is Modi winning fake currency war? A data you shouldn't miss

A discussion on fake Indian currency notes (FICN) has been doing the rounds, especially since demonetisation. While the quantum of fake notes in circulation remains difficult to ascertain, data on the detection of fake notes by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) throws some light on the possible range. The RBI put the figures of fake notes in FY17 at Rs 43.47 crore in its annual report released on August 30. This amount includes all denominations.

On the other hand, an analysis of the data released by the RBI on the detection rate of fake notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 denomination scrapped notes in a nationwide sample survey, also published in the annual report, suggests it was Rs 18.97 crore between November 8, 2016 and March 31, 2017. The third data point comes from a query answered in the Lok Sabha by the Minister of State for Finance on February 3, 2017, which put the value of fake notes detected after demonetisation at Rs 19.53 crore. This data point is for banned Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes.

Apart from these, the National Crime Records Bureau detected Rs 11.23 crore worth of fake currency notes across all denominations after demonetisation till July 14, 2017, according to a Parliament query.

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Counterfeit Currency: Detection and Estimates

FICN estimates from RBI sample survey

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